Monfreda's Picks: Division Winners Around the NFL

Better late than never, right? That's an expression that rang true as fans around the NFL watched the first snaps of the 2025 regular season unfold on Thursday night. Hopefully, it's also how fans feel about me releasing my picks for division winners league-wide despite one game officially being in the books already.

Fingers crossed that my picks are better than my timing.

From the AFC East to the NFC West, teams enter the season with hopes of claiming a division title and landing a spot in the playoffs come January. These are the teams I see having the best odds to complete those goals.

Monfreda's Picks: Division Winners around the NFL - AFC East to NFC West

AFC East

By far, this was the easiest choice for me to make across the league. The New England Patriots seem to be an entirely different team following a vast amount of added talent this offseason, and the Miami Dolphins are always dangerous with Tua Tagovailoa under center. Aaron Glenn has the New York Jets moving in the right direction, too.

Still, it feels impossible to go against the reigning MVP Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills here.

Upper New York's football team has all the components of Super Bowl contenders. There's established continuity and chemistry between a head coach and players, something neither the Patriots nor the Jets can say they have. Defensively, Buffalo's defense surrendered the 11th-least points in 2024 as well as the third-most turnovers. And under center, the team has a truly elite quarterback.

No other team in this division can say that about their signal caller. And while Buffalo's defense finished one spot out of the top-10 via least points surrendered this past season, all three of their division-mates finished top-10 via most points allowed.

AFC North

There's nothing but talent in this division; everywhere you look, there's a team with a legitimate Offensive or Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Some teams have one of each, even.

While defense will never not be important in this league, offense has become the name of the game in modern day football. The Cincinnati Bengals have no shortage of that - they may have the highest offensive ceiling league-wide, even.

But again - defense will never not be important in this league.

Throughout their 2024 campaign, the Bengals' defense finished bottom-8 in both yardage and points allowed. That's while totaling the seventh-most turnovers across the NFL; a number that's plenty hard to hit again as is, and one that still wasn't able to stop the bleeding much.

On the other side of things, both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns have two of the fiercest defensive units around. The problem is, neither offense is what should be defined as 'fierce'.

There is a team in this division that combines high offensive production and dominant defense.

The Baltimore Ravens' defense ranked top-10 via both least yardage and points this past season for the second consecutive year. Oh - and their quarterback totaled 5,000 all-purpose yards and 45 total touchdowns with only four interceptions to show for it.

AFC South

If there's any 'hot take' on this list, it's this one right here: the Indianapolis Colts are my pick to win the NFL's AFC South division.

This is one of the more complete teams league-wide, shadowed by a quarterback situation many fans scoff at. But don't let your opinion of Daniel Jones take away from how good this team is, led by a head coach who's somehow failed to drop below .500 throughout the disastrous Anthony Richardson-era.

With an offensive line that features All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson, Jones has more protection with Nelson alone than he's had throughout the entirety of his NFL career. Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce give Jones the best assortment of weaponry he's had at this level as well.

Defensively, the Colts boast a ferocious defensive line paired with a scary secondary. Linebacker Zaire Franklin was voted a team captain for the sixth-straight season, holding down his unit in the meanwhile.

It would be wrong of me to not point out that the Colts' defense was on the hook for a top-10 ranking via most yardage and points surrendered this past season, but additions such as Cam Bynum and Charvarius Ward should make those numbers do a complete 180.

The Houston Texans are the common pick here, and with the roster they've compiled in addition to their defensive guru head coach, it's a more than understandable selection. But my gut tells me to roll with the Colts here, and I'm going to listen.

AFC West

Three-of-four teams in the AFC West made the playoffs this past year, with the Las Vegas Raiders, the lone team to miss out on postseason action, improving drastically.

The Denver Broncos have started to gain steam as a favorite here behind second-year signal caller Bo Nix and Super Bowl winning head coach Sean Payton. Part of that is because fans are starting to believe in the product Denver is fielding. The bigger part is because fans are starting to count the Kansas City Chiefs out.

For the fourth consecutive year.

In the other three seasons fans counted Andy Reid's juggernauts out, the Chiefs made three Super Bowls, lifting the Lombardi Trophy twice.

Does that actually sound like a team to count out?

Look; this year's Chiefs are going to start the season differently. Travis Kelce is coming off of a down year, and at this stage in his career, it may be a downward trajectory in full. Add in a six-week Rashee Rice suspension, and Kansas City is fighting an uphill battle early.

But this is a head coach-quarterback duo that always seems to be fighting an uphill battle, and always finding ways to adjust and win. There's a reason why Andy Reid has the fourth-most wins among all head coaches in league history, after all. Pair him with an undoubtedly elite quarterback, and you get, well, the results speak for themselves; Reid and Patrick Mahomes have never not made it to the AFC Championship Game since Mahomes took over as the team's starting quarterback.

For my money, the Chiefs will, for the 10th-straight season, win the AFC West.

NFC North

The 'floor' for each team in this division feels relatively high. It wouldn't surprise me to see any of these clubs win 10 contests this season, nor would any marching into the postseason give me a shock.

So, it comes down to the ceiling for me - the maximum number of contests I can see one of these teams winning.

For me, that's the Green Bay Packers. And it was the Green Bay Packers prior to the blockbuster Micah Parsons deal last week.

It's the arm of Jordan Love coupled with a stout offensive line and a high-tier ground-and-pound runner. You don't know what you're going to get from the Packers' versatile and star-studded offense.

The Minnesota Vikings are a well-built team, but I believe they'll roll out a more conservative approach to get J.J. McCarthy accustomed to NFL action. I expect a lot of McCarthy playing within the system, limiting any game-changing action.

Ben Johnson was one-of-three coordinators to leave the Detroit Lions this offseason, yikes, taking a head coach position with the Chicago Bears. And while Johnson is a brilliant offensive mind, and his quarterback Caleb Williams is a sensational talent, I don't believe this is a particularly good fit - at least, not with the way Williams conducts an offense at this point in his career.

Then there's the Detroit Lions, who are led by perhaps the best motivator league-wide in Dan Campbell. Campbell, however, is far from an X's and O's guy. And he doesn't have to be; but someone has to be. Will the Lions be able to spawn another pair of gurus on each side of the ball? Perhaps, but even if that does miraculously happen, it won't happen overnight.

NFC East

Jayden Daniels took the NFL by storm during his rookie year, helping lead the Washington Commanders to the NFC Championship game in Year 1. It's quite the feat, and not one to take lightly in any way.

That being said, the Philadelphia Eagles are still the reigning NFL champions, and their roster is still as impressive as it gets.

Jalen Hurts gets criticism from fans for his play on the field, but it's oftentimes unjustified. The Super Bowl MVP consistently showcases high-level football IQ and the ability to get out of downright awful situations in a pinch. That'll get the job done frequently.

Add All-Pro wideout A.J. Brown, All-Pro running back Saquon Barkley, and the best offensive line in football - and don't forget DeVonta Smith - and you start to understand exactly why the Eagles lifted the Lombardi Trophy this past season.

Don't get me started on that front-seven, either. Absolute dominance.

NFC South

Consistency. Continuity. Roster building. Quarterback play. When I look at the four teams in this division, only one checks those boxes: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with their Pro Bowl quarterback.

I'm not convinced Tampa Bay won't boast the top defense in the NFC South. That's how things shook up last season with the Buccaneers finishing as the only team in the division to rank top-half in the NFL via least points allowed.

Offensively, Baker Mayfield, a back-to-back Pro Bowler, has no shortage of weapons at his disposal.

Mike Evans gives a safety blanket to any signal caller in Tampa Bay, and rookie Emeka Egbuka is the true definition of a 'slot machine'. Chris Godwin isn't yet healthy, but he's just another weapon to keep in mind.

All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs leads an impressive offensive line that'll block for last season's rookie sensation Bucky Irving.

NFC West

I wanted to roll with the 49ers here, but San Francisco lost too many important pieces this offseason for me to lock that in. Still, Kyle Shanahan is an offensive mastermind and Fred Warner is the best linebacker in football by about a country mile.

In the end, I have to roll with the Los Angeles Rams.

Thanks to Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan isn't the only head coach in this division who's mastered the art of NFL offense. And with Matthew Stafford under center and the duo of Puca Nucua, Davante Adams leading the charge at the wide receiver position, the offensive potential for the Rams is sky-high.

Don't forget about Kyren Williams, either, who earned himself an All-Pro honor in 2023.

There's a lot to like on the defensive side of the ball, too, starting with '24 Defensive Rookie of the year Jared Verse. All-in-all, this is a talent-packed team led by a Super Bowl winning head coach-quarterback duo surrounded by three All-Pro weapons. It's hard to go against that.

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