Monfreda's Picks: Week 3 Winners Around the NFL

It's beautiful, isn't it? Sunday–NFL Sunday. Seven consecutive hours of NFL action followed by Sunday Night Football later in the evening.

It doesn't get any better than this.

Hopefully it doesn't get any better than my Week 3 picks, either. This past Sunday, I batted 66% on six-of-nine early window contests. I'm looking to up that percentage heading into Week 4.

With any luck, that'll be exactly what happens.

Monfreda's Picks: Week 3 around the NFL - First slate

Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings

The battle of backup quarterbacks: Jake Browning, who's slotted to continue filling in for Bengals' signal caller Joe Burrow, and former NFL MVP nominee Carson Wentz.

With Browning under center for a large chunk of Week 2, Cincinnati was able to fend off the Jaguars by way of a 31-27 victory. And for the Vikings, an embarrassing 6-22 score was the result last Sunday. That was with starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy playing throughout the entire contest; never mind the team's QB2 leading the charge, as will happen in Week 3.

Against all logic presented above, Minnesota is my pick here. For starters, Browning was responsible for three interceptions against a Jaguars defense that poses less of a threat than that of the Vikings. Beyond that, it's hard to imagine veteran quarterback Carson Wentz performs worse than McCarthy has at this point in his young career.

Per our 'True' QB Stats/Efficiency, McCarthy ended his Week 2 performance 3/9 (33%) on third down, 1/4 (25%) in the redzone, 1/2 (50%) in 2 minute drill situations, 2/6 (33%) in clutch time, 2/8 (25%) on play action downs, 2/7 (28.6%) when outside the pocket, 8/17 (47%) inside the pocket and 1/4 (25%) under pressure, while missing badly on four throws. It's nothing to worry about at this stage in his career–but, again, it's hard to see Wentz performing worse. Winner: Minnesota Vikings

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Not many had predicted the Texans would start their '25 campaign 0-2, but here we are. I can't escape the feeling that Houston will continue that losing streak post-Week 3 as well.

It's hard to deny Houston is the better all-around football team. In fact, all three phases of the game stand tall next to their counterparts in Jacksonville. DeMeco Ryans even gives the team a level of continuity that the Jaguars simply don't yet have.

But my gut is telling me Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence find a way to adjust following an inefficient Week 2 outing that came after a dominant showing against the Carolina Panthers–granted, the Panthers don't look too good themselves.

Still, that's better than the Texans' offense, and Stroud in particular, has looked all year. In Week 2, for example, Stroud finished with a 50% or lower efficiency percentage via our 'True' QB Stats/Efficiency in third down, redzone, 2 minute drill and clutch situations, being on the hook for three 'bad misses' as well. Perhaps that's contributing to my gut feeling.

Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars

More picks

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Through two weeks, the film shows both a talented and poised quarterback in this year's first-overall selection Cam Ward. However, it isn't translating to the results you want to see–and that has a lot to do with exactly why the Titans had the first-overall selection to begin with.

Indianapolis, on the other hand, who stood as my winners of the AFC South prior to Week 1 kicking off, have been better than even I had thought. Daniel Jones is dealing, and the playmakers on both sides of the ball are, well, making plays. In short, I just don't believe this Tennessee Titans roster is built to handle what the Colts are working with.

Winner: Indianapolis Colts

Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders

Are you ready for a crazy take? I believe the Commanders offense will get much-needed new life this year through Marcus Mariota; life that they likely wouldn't get in Week 3 with Jayden Daniels under center in this contest.

Let me explain–it isn't at all a matter of Mariota vs Daniels as players. It's a matter of how I believe the Commanders will operate their offense under the two, and the stage of their career both quarterbacks happen to be in at this very moment specifically.

For Daniels, the first two weeks of his '25 campaign have been about spreading his wings and becoming a legitimate game-changer in this league; just as he has all the talent to become. There's an adjustment period with such a change, naturally - also known as the infamous 'sophomore slump' - so a step backwards through the early stages of this transition isn't surprising. It's a different way of quarterbacking than what we saw last year when Daniels played more within the system to get acclimated to NFL-level football during his first professional season.

That's exactly what I expect the Commanders to go back to with Mariota under center; simply getting the football to the playmakers and letting them make plays. And Washington has no shortage of playmakers. Is it enough to stop Geno Smith and the Raiders from having a much-needed bounce back game after a poor outing in Week 2? In the end, I just don't believe Mariota has the abilities to close things out; Daniels, of course, would be a different story in that regard. I'll take Pete Carroll and company on a short week.

Winner: Las Vegas Raiders

NFC Championship Game rematch

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles

The Jalen Hurts discourse has quickly become one of my favorites on social media. Fans are lining up on a weekly basis to criticize Hurts for not pushing the ball downfield and instead opting to continuously take what the defense gives him.

In Week 1, for example, Hurts targeted a pass-catcher 10-plus yards downfield on only three occasions. That's just laughable, right? Well, not when you're efficient on 11-of-12 passes from the pocket, as Hurts was via our 'True' QB Stats/Efficiency. That's as efficient as it gets–that's all that matters at the end of the day.

Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams make up an offense that will give any squad a run for their money; especially with an offensive mastermind such as Sean McVay at the helm. Still, I can't help but feel like the Eagles walk away the winners here thanks to some rather boring, yet woefully efficient quarterbacking from Jalen Hurts. Philadelphia's football team is just too good to go against.

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers

This is one I'm going to keep rather short and sweet.

I'm a big fan of Michael Penix Jr. The second-year signal caller has some eye-popping arm talent and operates through the toughest of times as well as anyone. Add Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts - yes, that Kyle Pitts, who seems to be gearing up for a career year - and a stout defense, and it's no surprise that this is a team off to a hot start.

The Panthers, on the other hand, I can pick against each week and sleep just fine doing so. I'm still a believer in Bryce Young, but this team, and Young specifically, will have to show me a lot more before I start siding with them.

Winner: Atlanta Falcons

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

A team coming off a tough loss hits the road to face a squad fresh off their first win. That's the story heading into this one.

For Maye, it's about building consistency. Per our 'True' QB Stats/Efficiency, the Patriots' signal caller was responsible for five errant throws in Week 1–more than any other quarterback league-wide. He was able to find the mark more consistently in Week 2, helping boost New England's offense from 13 points against the Las Vegas Raiders to 33 points in a bout with the Miami Dolphins.

On the other side of things, first-year Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers looked like his old self in Week 1, and once again impressed in Week 2. I don't expect that to change this weekend as Pittsburgh advances to 2-1. Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

Final picks around the NFL

Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns

The Packers were my pick to win the NFC North prior to the Micah Parson's trade. They've looked nothing short of dominant in the meanwhile. On the other side of things, Cleveland is 0-2. Sounds as if there's not much of a contest here, right?

Don't be so sure. Myles Garrett is.. well.. Myles Garrett; the league's best defensive player. His defensive-mates make up quite the supporting cast as well.

My gut is telling me to roll with the Dawg Pound here, so that's what I'm going to do. Even if Green Bay is clearly the better team between the two.

Winner: Cleveland Browns

New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Truth be told, the New York Jets are another team I can pick against each and every week with a smile on my face. When they're playing a team like Tampa Bay, a team I expect to finish as a division winner, it makes things even easier.

The Jets looked much more impressive than I expected in Week 1. During their Week 2 contest, however, they couldn't have looked much worse. Which version was the one to truly expect from Justin Fields and company moving forward? That question won't get an answer, for now, as Tyrod Taylor gets ready to start against the Buccaneers. It's a game I expect Tampa to win rather easily at home. Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 3 NFL

CC: National Football League